India’s Space-based ISR Capabilities and Regional Deterrence

Abstract

India is expeditiously enhancing its space-based Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. The presence of Indian military assets in space is a subject of debate in relation to the Chinese space program, eliciting concerns from Pakistan regarding the trajectory of its nuclear deterrence. Pakistan's acquisition of nuclear weapons was motivated by the aim to dissuade its significantly larger and more powerful adversary, India, from infringing upon its territorial sovereignty. The nuclear deterrence strategy of Pakistan is founded on the principles of the Perfect Deterrence Theory, a departure from the Classical Deterrence Theory which was prevalent in analyzing the deterrence dynamics between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War era. The research delves into the repercussions of India's space-based ISR capabilities on the nuclear deterrence and strategic stance of Pakistan. The expansion of India's military space program, coupled with its substantial focus and resources allocated to supersonic cruise missiles and ballistic missile defense systems, signals India's efforts to bolster its First Strike capability vis-a-vis Pakistan's key strategic assets and installations. The advancements will have a significant influence on deterrence stability in South Asia by raising the probability of a nuclear escalation in upcoming times. The advancements are poised to have a significant influence on the maintenance of deterrence stability in the South Asian region, given their potential to raise the probability of a nuclear escalation in subsequent times.